2026 Predictions: Why I Bet on What Won't Change (The Lindy Effect)

The Futurism Fatigue

It’s that time of year again. My feed is overflowing with futurism.

"In 2026, AI will write all code autonomously." "The end of Apps as we know them." "The Year of Quantum Computing." "Humanoid robots everywhere."

Don't get me wrong, I love technology. My entire career—and the very existence of DJOJO STUDIO—is built on it. But after more than 25 years in the market, I’ve learned a crucial lesson: betting on what changes is gambling; betting on what stays the same is strategy.

The Lindy Effect

I base my worldview on the Lindy Effect, a concept popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things (like a technology or an idea) is proportional to their current age.

If a book has been in print for 50 years, it will likely be in print for another 50. If a human behavior has existed for a millennia, it won't disappear because a new VR headset was launched.

So, for 2026, here are my bets. Not on the shiny new toys, but on the immutable constants.

1. The Problem > The Solution

Building something technically incredible that nobody wants to use will continue to be the #1 mistake for startups and Product Managers.

We fall in love with the "how" (the stack, the AI model, the framework) and forget the "why." (At DJOJO, when we were conceptualizing MealAudit, we didn't start with "Let's use Computer Vision." We started with "Tracking calories manually is annoying and people quit doing it." The tech is just the vehicle for the solution, not the destination).

2. Communication is Still the Bottleneck

The biggest bottleneck in any product team in 2026 won't be the CI/CD pipeline, the compilation time, or the GPU availability.

It will be two human beings understanding completely different things about the same User Story.

Tools change, but the difficulty of transferring an abstract idea from one brain to another remains constant. No amount of AI will fix a team that doesn't know how to talk to each other.

3. Anxious Stakeholders

The Board and the C-Suite will continue to ask for deadlines before Discovery is even halfway done. This is not a bug; it’s a feature of business. Capital hates uncertainty.

Your job as a PM isn't to complain about this pressure, but to manage it. (This is where structured decision-making becomes your shield. Using a tool like Decisor.ai allows you to show stakeholders the mathematical trade-offs of rushing a feature, shifting the conversation from anxiety to risk management).

4. The Basics Will Keep Winning

A fast product that solves a real pain and has an honest UX will continue to beat complex features based on hype.

The technology changes every 6 months. Human nature hasn't changed in thousands of years. We want speed, clarity, and value.

Conclusion: Study the Constants

If you want to be a better Product Manager in 2026, study less about the "tool of the month" and more about psychology, negotiation, and business strategy.

(This is the philosophy behind SkillFlux. We believe learning paths shouldn't just be about the latest framework, but about deep, foundational skills that survive the test of time).

The storm of hype will always be there, raging outside. Your job is to be the lighthouse that stands firm on the rock of fundamentals.

So, what is the "basic" element in your industry that never goes out of style?